Posted 6 months ago

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My discussion of the iPad on Bloomberg yesterday morning.

It’s hard to say much about the iPad that hasn’t already been said, especially in light of such intelligent and sensible observations by Marco and Colin. Despite not having used one, I completely buy into Apple’s argument that the iPad performs a small set of key tasks much more powerfully than a smartphone while offering a more intimate experience than a laptop. I even accept the claim that the personal computers of 2020 may look more like an iPad — task-centric and abstracted but less flexible — than an iMac.

This isn’t the Carousel of Progress, though; Apple is in business to make money, and what’s not clear to me is whether today’s consumers will actually purchase the iPad. Unlike the iPod and iPhone, the market for the iPad, even at $499, is not a particularly mainstream or well-defined one. It’s a calculated risk for Apple, and it’s exciting to watch, but it also makes me uneasy in a way I haven’t felt since I watched Jobs unveil the Power Mac G4 Cube. I’m certainly not comparing the two products, but my snap reaction was the same: “Who should buy this?”

Apple has positioned the iPad towards the netbook market, and that market is nothing to sniff at. A certain segment of netbook buyers purchase them to supplement another computer and browse the Web on their couch. For these buyers, I think the iPad is quite a valuable proposition; I know this, because I am squarely in this market. (Note that in Apple’s marketing video, people using the iPad are invariably lounging around the house, surfing the Web. And I believe the couch on stage Wednesday marked the first appearance of a couch in a Jobs keynote.) For other types of netbook users, though — students taking notes in class, business travelers, and price-conscious laptop buyers — I think the iPad is unlikely to be seen as an adequate substitute.

A quick word on ebooks. As many others have pointed out, the iPad doesn’t mean a whole lot for Amazon other than as a bargaining chip to be used by book publishers in negotiations. Amazon’s goal is to sell as many ebooks as possible, and I’m sure they’ll sell plenty on the iPad through the Kindle app. As a device, the iPad doesn’t mean too much for the Kindle either. (I’m talking about the standard Kindle—the larger-screen Kindle DX is another story.) Serious readers, or more precisely people who read lots of text, will continue to buy the Kindle, which lasts two weeks on a charge, doesn’t strain the eyes, and can be used in direct sunlight. The iPad’s capabilities will appeal more to casual readers who want a multi-purpose device and will buy the occasional ebook. Apple will do just fine in the ebook space — after all, there are many more casual readers in the world than there are serious readers — but this isn’t about killing the Kindle or even shaking up the market for e-readers that significantly.